THE STANDOFF BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA- (Blog)

INTRODUCTION

The Galwan Valley clash between India and China which started on 15^th June, 2020, was a result of building tensions between the border forces of the 2 nations since May 5 along the road of Actual Control (LAC) that crosses through the valley in Ladakh. Such tensions have their roots, historically within the Sino-Indian War (1962), but more recently in both China and India’s expansion of military infrastructure along the LAC. The 2020 deadlock is contrasting from previous Chinese invasions within the LAC because unlike the distinct  and restricted encounters of the past, the present-day encounters are occurring at various points in Ladakh which suggest a high degree of Chinese premeditation and approval of its activities from the very top of the Chinese leadership. India’s construction of a feeder road that might connect with the road built last year from Darbuk-Shyok in Galwan Valley to Daulat Begh-Oldi was a trigger to Chinese Officials who saw this as an aggressive tilt in India’s border strategy. This road deliberately links Leh to the Daulat Begh-Oldi military airbase permitting convenient portability of troops and equipment to the LAC. Control over this road requires an impact of the Galwan valley ridgeline where the June 15 clashes happened. More importantly, control of the valley would offer India access to Aksai-Chin, which holds the Tibet-Xinjiang highway. To the western side of Daulat Begh-Oldi is Gilgit-Baltistan, a portion of the POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) region and portion of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). It can pose calamitous impact on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s socio-economic and political stoutness. BRI also links to China’s own security concerns in Xinjiang and thus any threat to the CPEC could also be viewed as a threat to China’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The road also elevates China’s apprehension concerning Aksai-Chin which it inhabited after the 1962 war.

ANALYSIS :

India’s increase in military reinforcements along the LAC has been fairly recent compared to China’s long-term escalation of military presence in the area without much reaction from the Indian side. India’s inferiority in military infrastructure compared to China but equal fever in national territorial interests gives her little or no space to manoeuvre. However, China’s current investment in broader long-term goals may need given India that exact space. Betwixt the coronavirus pandemic, China has emphatically seek its other territorial asserts, specially the jurisdiction of semi-autonomous Hong Kong. Currently, Hong Kong seems to be a national priority for Beijing and therefore the economic backlash from the more powerful US, a certainty. The United States Senate on June 30thpassed sanctions on China that threaten over $1.1 trillion in funding. India’s equal threat to crackdown on Chinese Foreign Direct Investments and economic predictions of a 50% cut in Chinese FDI in India are sure to aggravate China’s conditions. These multifaceted threats justify China’s de-escalation of its current interests within the Galwan Valley. The military challenge of the LAC may be a safe future gamble due to China’s superior military resources and skill; but the national challenge of Hong Kong and apprehended economic disputes of ensuing international retaliation insist a more vital emancipation on China’s behalf. India, on the opposite hand, was presented with a little window of opportunity to proportion its defence along the LAC, which it seems to possess taken advantage of.

CONCLUSION :

Summarily, it is often claimed that adversarial relations between the 2 States is sure to worsen within the future and therefore the two states will look to extend competition in their other dimensions of impact inclusive of maritime. China will ponder to settle its “Malacca Dilemma”, or in other terms its over-reliance on the Malacca Strait for energy-safety, and thereby heighten its existence within the Indian Ocean.  A rise in Chinese presence would gravely intensify the rivalry with India which views the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as a strategic priority. Such augmentation of China’s “string of pearls” policy within the IOR which constitutes of a combination of strict military strategies, governmental backing, and an ever-broadening list of economic reliant to perceive an edge in South Asia, will found out an immediate altercation with India stumped . India will look to counter increasing Chinese presence within the region with multilateral diplomacy and with alliances with compatible countries and thru forums like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). The recent naval exercises of the Indian Navy and therefore the United States Navy is proof of India’s intent of countering China within the IOR region. As India’s Naval capabilities also are inferior to China therefore it's important for India to pursue multilateralism in countering China and for that US-India relations have enormous significance. Therefore, geopolitical tensions between India and China are set to become more volatile within the future.

-Vasundhara Dhar

School of Law, Birla Global University.